On the morning after, one can hardly begin to count the ways in which this election has made no sense in terms of conventional political wisdom. Just ask the pollsters, who once again failed to see this coming. (See separate blog “Is Polling Obsolete?”) And, as this author has repeatedly stressed, those political scientists who specialize in electoral politics can only do so much without solid data, which these polls have failed to deliver, leading to the inevitable “garbage in, garbage out” phenomenon. But there is more to this story than faulty polling. As has been clear since 2020, the mindset of many American voters appears to have changed substantially from conventional wisdom as well.
Perhaps one of the best insights into the psyche of Trump supporters of the non-“MAGA hysterical” variety came from an otherwise seemingly thoughtful and moderate Republican voter who said “I wish he would shut his potty mouth, but that’s just him being him and flying off the handle. He’s strong and he knows what to do to fix things…”[i]
In some ways this is reminiscent of the Nixon-Humphrey contest, where millions of Americans deliberately chose Richard Nixon, (already known as “Tricky Dicky”) to lead the country even though they recognized he was a compulsive liar, because they believed he was “strong” and could stand up for the US in the world. [ii] (Helllo Vietnam and Watergate.) But in other ways this apparent willingness to disregard almost all of Donald Trump’s many known failings is far more significant, since he has stated publicly and repeatedly that his agenda for a future term includes many actions that are unconstitutional or undemocratic.
And so we now have an incoming president of the United States of America, (once considered the greatest example of liberal democracy on the planet), who is:
Corrupt
A Convicted Felon
A Convicted Sexual Abuser and Unrepentant Misogynist
An Inveterate Liar
A Racist
A “Wannabe Tyrant,” friend to some of the world’s worst dictators (Putin, Orban, Kim Jong Un)
A Disruptor of the Established World Order (NATO, UN, Free Trade, Ukraine)
Moreover he plans to turn government and the public service over to:
Elon Musk, (Government Efficiency) who in turn plans to cut thousands of public service jobs and eliminate troublesome “red tape” regulations, and who contributed more than a hundred million dollars to Trump’s faltering fundraising campaign in anticipation of favourable consideration for his ventures.[iii]
Robert Kennedy Jr., (Health), a man who is an anti-vaxxer who believes all vaccines cause autism, and who pledges to remove fluoride from water supplies[iv]
Donald Trump Jr. (son), Jared Kushner (son-in-law), and other close family members for whom “nepotism” is not a four-letter word, having benefited enormously from Trump’s first term in office.[v] For a fascinating outline of their various exploits during the first Trump presidency, see also Marc Levy’s international best-seller, La Crepuscule des Fauves.[vi]
Laura Loomer[vii] a far-right conspiracy theorist whom even far right Republican Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene called “crazy” and “a racist.”[viii]
And of course his running mate and future Vice President, J.D. Vance, who proved to be of little or no help on the campaign trail but as a potential future president must be recognized for his many failings too numerous to mention.[ix]
Even more mind boggling is how this has come to pass. Sadly, there are many many groups and individuals responsible for this sorry state of affairs. To name just a few of the worst offenders:
The Republican Establishment, which once again, as in 2016, failed to coalesce behind another candidate early on in the lengthy leadership race, and then closed ranks behind him when he won. (See, for example, the upcoming biography of the truly shameless Mitch McConnel)
President Joe Biden and those around him who failed to help him do the right thing and step down in plenty of time for the Democrats to have a genuine leadership race
Alexandria Ocasio Cortez and the extreme left-wing Democrats in Congress who self-described as “socialists”, thereby handing to the Republicans on a silver platter clear-cut justification for their claims the Democrats were too “woke” and concerned with identity politics and the environment to worry about the economy or cost of living.
Those Justices of the Supreme Court nominated by Trump, all of whom deliberately misled Congress during their confirmation hearings [x] and then promptly overturned Roe v Wade, after which they together proceeded to deliver the scandalous decision on presidential immunity that top constitutional lawyers and legal scholars have criticized in scathing terms as incomprehensible and dangerous.[xi]
And then there are the former Democrat supporters who chose to either sit out the race entirely or switch to the Republicans or Jill Stein of the Greens for reasons that could only be described as self-defeating. Take, for example, the decision of Arab Americans in the northern swing state of Michigan to withdraw their support from Democrats because they felt the party was too pro-Israel, thereby allowing an even more pro-Israel candidate to win. Evidently they have belatedly recognized their mistake, as one of their leaders the morning after pleaded “Don’t blame Arab Americans for Trump’s Win.”[xii]
At the end of the day, perhaps the most startling and discouraging fact about this election is the number of eligible American voters who failed to bother to cast their ballot. In what has been widely described as the most consequential election in at least half a century, only 64.5% of eligible voters actually did so. This means that roughly 87 million Americans did not express their views in this hotly contested race. Of course we will never know what they might have done. Perhaps Trump would have had a landslide victory. Clearly not only the Democrat establishment and pollsters, but many academics and the mainstream media are out of touch with “ordinary” Americans.
If one thing is clear as the dust settles, it is that a large and diverse collection of Americans are ‘mad as hell’ about the way things are going in their country. Only 3 in 10 Americans feel their democratic institutions are working, and nearly two thirds believe their country is heading in the wrong direction. As outside observers we can only hope that the so-called ‘guardrails’ of democracy hold, and the president-elect is prevented from acting on some of the most outrageous statements made during the heat of the campaign. If not, we are all in for trying times.
[i] CBC National News, America Votes 2024. November 5, 2024.
[ii] https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-50-years-after-nixons-resignation-the-moral-questions-of-watergate-are/
[iii] https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2024/nov/06/how-elon-musk-stands-to-benefit-from-trump-presidency
[iv] https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/rfk-jr-planning-takeover-health-agencies-1235150677/
[v] https://democracyforward.org/work/uncovering-kushners-involvement-in-renewing-visa-program/ and Ayes, Sabra (July 11, 2017). “The Russian lawyer who met with Donald Trump Jr. was unknown in the U.S. – until now”. Los Angeles Times. Archived from the original on July 12, 2017. Retrieved July 12, 2017.
Hayden, Michael Edison (July 11, 2017). “Trump Jr. Russia e-mails spark fierce criticism, support”. ABC New
[vi] Marc Levy. La Crepuscule des Fauves (“Twilight of the Beasts”)
[vii] https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/far-right-activist-laura-loomer-access-trump-crisis-campaign-rcna170915
[viii] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cly8y27dwgpo and https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/12/politics/marjorie-taylor-greene-laura-loomer-rhetoric-maga/index.html
[ix] https://www.newstatesman.com/world/americas/north-america/us/2024/09/why-jd-vance-is-toxic-to-ordinary-americans
[x] https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2022/06/28/did-supreme-court-justices-lie-by-claiming-they-wouldnt-overturn-roe-v-wade-heres-what-they-actually-said/
[xi] https://rollcall.com/2024/07/01/historians-legal-experts-express-dismay-at-trump-immunity-ruling/
[xii] https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/26/politics/muslim-leaders-michigan-trump-endorse/index.html
