“Ultimately, government is about taking care of people and providing opportunity” [i]
Quick. Pop Quiz. What Canadian politician said this? Justin Trudeau? Jean Chretien? Pierre Trudeau? Lester Pearson? No, not a Liberal at all. The speaker is none other than newly-confirmed Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre’s new National Campaign Director and chief strategist, Steve Outhouse.
Unfortunately, his boss did not get the memo. In his seminal address to the party faithful in Calgary, Pierre Poilievre instead reiterated his well-known belief that government is a necessary evil and less government is always better. Government certainly does not have a role to play in leveling any playing fields or providing any opportunities. No, according to Poilievre, “people need the government off their backs and out of their way.” They need “a smaller government that makes room for the dignity of work and the soft, strong bonds of family.”[ii] (Translation: Who needs EI, welfare, health care, childcare, etc etc etc?) In fact, he boasted, if he were to start a new political party today he would call it the “Mind Your Own Damn Business Party”.
So what on earth was all this talk about a kinder, gentler Pierre Poilievre in Calgary? A new and improved version that “got” the mistakes he and the party had made, mistakes that once again left them out in the cold after a presumably unbeatable twenty-point lead in the polls last April?
Apparently the idea of a changed man was all smoke and mirrors. True, Poilievre did sound less belligerent, less like he was in attack dog mode. He smiled more often and he tried to be funny, although frankly his one effort at a joke did fall flat with his audience. And he did recognize that there were some internal party issues that needed to be cleaned up to prevent a grassroots revolt. But he had already largely dealt with them by getting rid of his former director, the widely disliked Jenni Byrne, and by promising changes in the constitution to give ridings more independence. Job done.
But there was absolutely nothing to suggest he had anything to apologize for in terms of the reasons for the party’s crash landing in April. Instead, he continued to take credit for the party obtaining a record high percentage of the popular vote, and increased seats, despite the fact the Conservatives lost the election. He even thought it was worthwhile to mention that the party “won” the mock vote in high schools organized by Elections Canada.
Certainly nothing in his speech suggested that he needed to take a different tack on the pressing issues of the day, even now. On the contrary, he essentially bragged about the fact that his focus on affordability issues, such as housing, food and the carbon tax, had not only been correct but had been taken up by the Carney Liberals. His task now was to make sure they carried on down this same right-wing path. So, job done?
Perhaps the most revealing aspect of Poilievre’s speech was his failure to make any mention of the large orange elephant in the room, Donald Trump. (Even Jason Kenney was quoted as saying he thought that was a mistake.) Poilievre did make a passing reference to “unfair tariffs” and “diplomatic distractions”, but his only policy crumb to respond to these game-changing issues was to suggest that “The good news is that the same Conservative policies that will make life affordable will make Canada more self-reliant.”[iii] Primarily these ‘policies’ appear to be building more pipelines and cutting the capital gains tax, although he gussied it up a bit by referring to a proposed “Canadian Sovereignty Act” which seemed to be more about letting provinces run rampant over the federal government than anything else.
Of course it is important to keep in mind the situation that Poilievre was facing in Calgary. Having orchestrated the leadership review in his favour as much as possible – ensuring it took place in his bedrock base in Calgary, and scheduling it for the very same weekend the Ontario provincial Conservatives (not his base) were having their convention, never mind making sure that delegates declared themselves in support of him before being confirmed – it was nevertheless true that there was still a bit of nervousness in the Poilievre camp.
This is hardly surprising. After polls for the previous two weeks continued to highlight the further decline in his already disastrous negative approval ratings with most Canadians, and speculation continued about further defections from his caucus, Poilievre needed to win big if he were to have control of the party and the party’s message. So he had to play to his base, and not stray very far from the messages that endear him to them, like cutting taxes and “back-office bureaucracy,” fighting crime through new measures like tightening access to bail or parole and introducing “life sentences for fentanyl kingpins”, and defending the right to promote hate speech if the source is a religious text.
He did, however, make reference to some new Defence expenditures he favours, such as a bevy of submarines, helicopters, radar technology and drones, as well as new military bases in the North. Amazingly, he neglected to mention how he would pay for these exorbitant expenditures, since he also stressed again his intention to cut taxes and reduce the deficit. Perhaps he had already forgotten his retreat from a commitment he hastily made the previous year to raise defence spending to 2% of GDP, a commitment he quickly reneged on (“we will work towards that objective”) when someone evidently explained to him how much that would cost, and how it could not be realistically done without either increasing the deficit or raising taxes.[iv]
On the whole, it would seem that Poilievre is still listening to Jenni Byrne, not Steve Outhouse. Byrne, who attended the convention as a mere delegate, was quoted telling one reporter that she thinks the “affordability” platform can simply be linked to the tariff/Trump issues, because “All of that, though, contributes to what is going on in Canada in terms of affordability.”[v] Put another way, it seems that Poilievre’s message only needs to be slightly tweaked, and this modified approach will turn out to be a winning effort in the next election. Really?
One thing is certain. The Liberals have their dream opponent in the next election.
[i] https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-pierre-poilievre-conservative-leadership-vote-convention/
[ii] https://globalnews.ca/news/11646399/poilievre-conservative-convention-speech-transcript/
[iii] https://globalnews.ca/news/11646399/poilievre-conservative-convention-speech-transcript/
[iv] https://brookejeffrey.ca/budgeting-101-why-natos-2-is-so-elusive/
[v] https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/jenni-byrne-convention-interview-9.7069795
