Last Sunday, an increasingly worried Pierre Poilievre posted a bizarre message on his Linkedin site, addressed directly to Liberal leadership hopeful Mark Carney. The formal letter, on Leader of the Opposition letterhead, stated that Carney “could be the prime minister in the next 43 days” and then demanded that he commit “to banning any prior Trudeau minister from serving in your cabinet”. [i]
When reporters asked Carney for his response, he asked with a grin “Why is he writing to me? And on a Sunday?” Both very good questions. The answer is quite simple. Because Poilievre is hearing little feet, like quarterbacks who throw away the ball when they fear they are about to be sacked.
And why would that be? After all, his party is nearly 20 points ahead in the polls, and has been for nearly two years. And Poilievre has been conducting himself as a prime minister-in-waiting for much of that time. So why is he suddenly worried now? Again, the answer is quite simple. He is afraid of losing ground to the Liberals, and for at least three very valid reasons. Any of them are potentially damaging but, taken together, they might even derail his chances for a majority government.
First, Poilievre has spent the past two years on the attack since he became Conservative leader. His primary targets have been the so-called carbon tax, and prime minister Justin Trudeau personally. Now the Conservatives’ would-be prime minister finds himself with a real problem. No Justin Trudeau to kick around anymore. And no carbon tax either, since both Liberal leadership frontrunners Carney and Chrystia Freeland have said they will ditch it. So it makes no sense at all to continue saying that they are “Gas Tax Carney” and “Gas Tax Freeland”. Nor does Poilievre’s statement that they are “Just like Justin” carry much weight. So now he is reduced to writing a letter to Carney about his potential cabinet choices. (A letter that was actually misdated January 2024, suggesting it was thought up in a hurry.)
This leads to the second reason why Pierre Poilievre is seriously beginning to worry. Ironically, this is a problem that he himself has inadvertently highlighted. That would be his potential cabinet picks. At a recent press conference where he was accompanied by some of his Conservative MPs, he was asked who he would put in a Conservative cabinet. Poilievre promptly said “the people behind me” at the event. Probably he realized his mistake immediately. The people behind him were essentially nameless backbench Conservative MPs, almost none of whom had any relevant training or experience for these demanding posts. In desperation, Poilievre then blurted out that Andrew Scheer – who was not present– would be among his first choices. This would be the amiable but somewhat bumbling previous leader of the party whom Poilievre frequently criticized, and whose experience is limited to serving as Opposition House Leader and Speaker of the House of Commons. As several former Conservative strategists and advisers noted in a discussion on this issue, Poilievre’s choices are extremely limited, with only five members of his current caucus having ever served in cabinet,[ii] some of whom are not in favour with the current leader. With the Trump tariffs issue looming large, the spectre of an inexperienced, and potentially incompetent group of cabinet ministers trying to learn on the job is something that is beginning to penetrate the consciousness of Canadians, and not in a good way.
And then there is the issue of Poilievre himself. Having worked so hard to demonize Justin Trudeau, Poilievre had little reason to worry about his own image or qualifications. He was simply “not Justin” and that would be enough. Now there has been a dramatic change in the political landscape with the arrival of Donald Trump as 47th president of the United States. Now many Canadians are looking for a different type of prime minister.
Poilievre has always been vulnerable to criticism as a career politician. Having been elected in 2004 at the age of 25, he was the youngest MP in the 38th parliament and he has been an MP ever since. In other words, he has never held any job outside of politics. And all but two of those 21 years in politics were spent on the backbenches. Coupled with his aggressive but seemingly immature nature, he does not fit the bill as someone who could manage Canada’s response or negotiate confidently with the erratic American president. This, in turn, puts Carney and Freeland in a whole new light, given their extensive relevant experience and expertise. And of course it gives heightened credibility to the many well-known and competent Liberal ministers who are currently minding the store, such as Melanie Joly, Philippe Champagne, Dominic Leblanc and Jonathan Wilkinson.
A third reason for the Conservative leader’s anxiety is his lack of a positive agenda, or indeed any agenda. This is what happens when you build your brand on negatives. This would always have been a problem that he would have to confront once in power but now, thanks to the disappearance of Trudeau and the gas tax, it has come to the fore much sooner than he anticipated. And of course if he were to lay out his real agenda he knows, as Stephen Harper did, that it would not be palatable to a large swath of the voting public. At a bare minimum Poilievre needs to find another stalking horse, or a harmless but appealing platform plank, and he needs to do it sooner rather than later.
More importantly, he needs to spell out what a Conservative government would do to counter the Trump tariffs and any other damaging American initiatives. With no experience himself and a rookie cabinet that will be no help to him in crafting such a response, Poilievre is right to be worried. His vulnerability is becoming more obvious with every passing day. He wanted the ballot question to be the gas tax. Instead, it looks increasingly like the ballot question will be “Who can best lead Canada through the Trump years?” And the answer for many Canadians is not him.
[i] https://www.linkedin.com/posts/pierrepoilievre_dear-mark-carney-if-you-are-not-just-like-activity-7289281778719113217-QViH/ A sample of the comments on the site suggests that most readers found the letter to be counterproductive for Poilievre and in many cases ridiculous.
[ii] https://thehub.ca/2024/10/30/what-a-prime-minister-poilievre-would-need-to-consider-when-building-his-cabinet/
